We’re Number 2! We’re number 2…

Today's Tids Issue 3,237

Opening Stuff:

 

On Sunday I hope the country will take breather from the current chaos to remember The Day that still scares the hell out of me – Pearl Harbor Day. It’s a day that reminds us we can never take perfect for granted. The day we couldn’t see behind the friendly masks of hardened foes. The day people died as church bells rang. The day the world leaned of USA resilience and might. A day I still feel deep in my heart.

 

How unsettling is it when driving in a car with kids, laughing and chatting, when all of a sudden one of the kids goes silent. And then turns white. And then…

 

Let’s hope that Hillary’s Wednesday speech at Georgetown where she urged empathy for enemies wasn’t planned for Pearl Harbor Day. Or the next beheading of an American.

 

Is Eric Holder Setting up Civil rights Cases now that can be ruled upon after he takes Ginsburg’s place on the Supreme Court?

 

The Question:

Name Ten things that you think could be a risk to the stock market in 2015.

 

The Headlines:

--Economists Cheer As New Jobs Added Number Hits 321K; Christmas Always Brings New Temporary Jobs.

--Bad News Bulletin: Factory Orders Down 0.7% In October; This Follows 0.5% fall In September.

--Republican House Blocks 0-Man Immigration Plan; Move Considered Symbolic AS Defeated Reid Senate Will Pass Before Ceding Upper House To Repubs.

--John Boehner: “The more the president talks about his ideas, the more unpopular he becomes. Why should I deprive him of that opportunity?’

--al-Qaida threatening To Kill US Hostage After Failed Seal rescue Attempt; Parents Plea Ignorance Of Attempt.

--White House Mulling Sanctions Against Ally Israel.

--President Names Pentagon Bureaucrat Ashton Carter As Next Sec. Defense.

--Coal Mining States Bracing For New Strident EPA Rules Resulting In Closure Of Plants; 170 Plants Will Or Have Been Closed reducing demand For  Coal.

--Benghazi Survivors Slam Congressional Report; Committee Repubs Say Then CIA Director Petraeus Misled Them With Explanation Of Attack.

--No Evidence Links Christie To GW Bridge Closure.

 

The US may still be #1. The measurement used to declare China passing the USA was based on PPP (Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates) which is correct in analyzing inflation adjusted people living standards. But using “market rates” properly delineates “National Income” a true measure of current buying power. So both countries are Number One, depending on which asterisk you are using, Per capita income at PPP rates or aggregate GDP at market rates.

 

Meanwhile up in Providence RI, the Hispanic community is asking for a greater police presence to help stop the mindless killing of their children by drive by shooters.

 

I’ve been having “Homeland” withdrawal symptoms this week. They are especially strong considering the amazing tension of the last show before the break, and the totally surprising ending. It begins again Sunday. I’m on the edge of my chair. Come to think of it, I’m going to look pretty odd sitting on the edge of the chair for five days.

 

Pharrell Williams wants to know why people aren’t talking about Michael Brown’s Bullyish behavior.

 

The choice of Bermuda for the next America’s cup races could be a logistical nightmare. It will be especially difficult to get TV coverage, since even in the best of situations, a sail boat race is incredibly expensive to cover. Oh…did I just acknowledge that sports are only as good as the availability of TV? It’s called the Kentucky Wildcats effect.

 

In fairness, a Civil Rights investigation into police action against citizens is not necessarily about race. It covers various elements of the 4^th Amendment and laws about undo force et.al. Although my guess is that al Sharpton isn’t thinking about protecting white men.

 

Isn’t it too bad that people like Sharpton would try to build a country divided against itself.

 

I’d like to be an economist,

Instead of a God demmed realist

Cause whatever number comes to light

You can pick the one that makes you right.

 

If you play golf in Florida, you have probably read stories about the guys who dive in ponds amongst alligators and make good money retrieving balls. Yesterday in South Africa, an experienced retriever missed a crocodile coming his way and was dragged under and killed. This is a senior living pastime I would probably avoid.

 

Regardless of his rhetoric today, the President has never wanted to work with the Republicans unless they rubber stamped his agenda – and he made that quite clear in his first ever meeting with Repubs after taking office in January 2009.

 

If you think U Kentucky Basketball isn’t about getting an education, how about the Florida for profit college FastTrain U using strippers as admission directors! “How’s calculus going, Honey?” “I’m calculating all of the time, Mom.”

 

Lovable old Apple may have been a little rotten at the core about five years ago when it systematically removed songs from IPods that were downloaded from non-ITunes’ services. The company has stopped the intrusion, and now Apple is being sued -- but we should be aware of this as another example of how insidious the web can be. People you don’t know, and people you thought you could trust can do nasty things to you.

 

The Answer:

First, always keep an eye on The Fed, which can reorder interest rate, or stimulus policy in a day, especially if the markets look too good. –If interest rates creep up, be careful of Dividend Shakeup, where a portfolio of dividend paying stocks has new competition. –Developed-Economy Divergence means smaller economies might follow EU rather than the US if ill winds blow. Keep an eye on your geo-balance. –EuroZone Deflation reduces income for US companies. Is the Oil drop the beginning of this? –Global Wage Stagnation will slow or lower growth of the global economy. –China Slow Growth…7% growth is not enough to sustain this massive entity as it attempts to go Urban, transitioning to a consumer and service economy. 7% sounds good until you factor in the massive government spending. –A Strong Dollar makes the US look healthy, but it also makes our goods more expensive, making it tougher to moves products easily. –Geopolitics diverts the yes of Americans to events seemingly beyond our control – like ISIS  and Ukraine – that affect the balance of comfort withIn the world. What event will pop up in 2015? –Optimism Turnover. All of a sudden US investors are riding high, close to Greenspan’s Irrational Exuberance theory – when you’re high you make stupid moves in the stock market. Beware of throwing caution to the wind. Then, there is the Black Swan. Often the most disruptive events are those we didn’t see coming like earthquakes, or a pervasive scam, or giant computer glitch. And of course these days a major hack job is always in the wings. Pearl Harbor? So, there you have it, ten things to make you worry, but really, to make you smarter and more aware. I’m sure you got them all correct.

 

Have a great weekend E-v-e-r-y-b-o-d-y!!