Contrarianism

Today's Tids Issue 4,645

From here, everything looks up to me:

Without shop windows to look at, I think more people are discovering architecture. Without bars in which to drink, I think more people are savoring the natural beauty of what God has given. Without social diversions, I think more people are cherishing the love in what they have always had.

One of the worst pieces of economic news I have seen during this weirdest of all times was the ISM Manufacturing Index of 41.5 announced Friday. Yikes! That is low, really low. The index usually hovers around 50 with anything below, like the 49 of last month, considered a sign of slowdown. Based on the chart I have been reading, it appears that 41.5 is lower than the 2009 dip. Meaning it is nasty. Meaning, we are in the “R” word.

An economist I listened to last week said we are in a period of unknown unknowns. Basically, she said the experts haven’t a clue on predicting. She said that in most cases when things are dire, we are looking at known unknowns. We’ve been there before. So, while there will be predictors of course, the wise woman suggests sitting tight and waiting for real data. In the meantime, she advises not selling stocks. One of the main reasons is that most who do always get back in too late. And she advised. “Don’t look at your portfolio every day. Worry is bad for you.” So, there’s a couple of morsels to digest.

A reader running out of things to do, writes to ask if it is too early to put up the Christmas tree?

There are two kinds of people in this world: Those who “reply to all” and those who reply to the sender.

The Question:

They ran a virtual Kentucky Derby this past Saturday with all of the 13 great Triple Crown Winners of the past. Name the top five finishers.

The Headlines:

--Increasing Angst Over Economy Shift As Result Of Virus Fall Out Pushes Markets Down; Rising US/China Tension Clouds Stock Market Enthusiasm.

--Buffet dumps Airline stocks.

--Italy Cases Jump Up; UK Death Toll Crosses 28K; Top Five Countries On Deaths/M: Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France; Next Five -- Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, USA, Switzerland.  

--Trump TV Town Hall: Raises Death Estimate To 100K; Thinks Vaccine Will Be Found By End Of 2020; Says He Has Evidence On China Lab Virus Accident Which Will be Revealed; Pushes Back On Accusatory Fingers Aimed At Him.

--Government Employees Union Spends $1 Million To Convince Congress To Send $One Trillion To Help Workers.

--NK And SK Troops Shoot Across Borders; Kim Jong un Appears To Resurface.

--NY Times Editorial Board Column Calls For Investigation Into Biden Sexual Assault Claims; Says “Stakes Are Too High”.

--As Many States Reopen, US Reports Deadliest Day – 2,909 Die From Covid; Cuomo Warns About Early Openings.

--Asia “Murder Hornets Come To US; Experts Rush To Save US Bee Population.

--60 Mins Leslie Stahl Says She Finished Battling CV And Pneumonia.

One of the things I don’t like about summer is that I lose too many pockets.

One big negative and possibly seriously dangerous outcome from this Covid thing is the precedent being set that may have unions and progressives thinking that government money grows on trees.

A smart and fair-minded man just stepped down as Editorial Page Editor for The Providence Journal. I know that most of you don’t read that paper. But I just have to take notice when good people leave the scene. There are too many people opining and reporting who can’t see or understand the broader picture. Pulitzer finalist Edward Achorn could. And he told his tales well.

To me, silence is noise.

In that little economic Tidlet above, I mentioned that getting in back in too late is a misfortunate faced by almost all of those who sell at the beginning of a panic.  This morning Warren Buffet admitted that he made a mistake by not buying when the prices were low. Yes, even Warren has a problem timing the market.

I will never contribute to the RNC until they stop calling at start of the morning. In fact I will never give to the RNC, or eth DNC or the LNC, or any other NC overspending to elect candidates. I was thinking this weekend about how many hundreds of millions was spent in the Dem primaries just to get to Joe Biden.

I’m thinking seriously about Justin Amash.

This is generally Mount Everest time. Maybe we aren’t hearing that much this year is because they haven’t figured out distancing regulations. Can you imagine delirious climbers, clamoring to summit trying to maintain 6 to 10 feet distances? Don’t CV’s thrive in cold? Frankly this whole Everest thing has become quite unsettling to me. Sometimes nature just takes what it wants, and mere humans are helpless against it. It’s like so much in modern times, things and places that use to be special are now at the mercy of human hordes commandeering them. That’s why I like being out of step.

I just found an obit for my Great Grandmother, and one line stood out, “I remember when Williamsburg (Brooklyn NY) was all farms.”

Dramatic change has been happening forever. Not that I like it.

An interesting statistic popped out of the RI State tracking of new CV cases. It appears that there was noticeable uptick in new cases 14 days after Easter, with the assumption being that too many people didn’t adhere to the advice of staying apart. Now they worry that warmer, sunnier days will tempt too many people to loosen their own restrictions.

While MLB pitchers aren’t throwing fastballs, I think Google search has lost its fastball. Much too often results are clouded by commercialism or POP culture events.

There’s a big difference between panic stock selling and dumping stocks in industries that may change forever after the CV is gone. And there will be industries that rise stronger out of the morass. Find them.

Come to think of it, shopping online for Christmas presents now is probably a good idea. Plenty of time and perhaps extra dough from not spending at restaurants. Think of a less pressuring Fall, where this year you may enjoy spending more time doing leisurely thing out side,

I see where Trump came out to support Joe in his fight against accusations. One of Trump’s smarter moves not getting in on the sexual accusation free-for-all. If you get my drift. Maybe he and Joe should blame their proclivities on Bill Clinton. Yeah, that would work – Bill made us do it!

60K+ deaths from CV makes me nervous. Being gregarious is probably a talent better off suppressed.

A new Netflix offering pre-release receiving plaudits and raves from the usual cast of TV talk show pundits is “Hollywood”. It is set in the early 1950’s and is about young hopefuls, so far mostly men, willing to do anything to get ahead. I find it tedious. I don’t care about the plights of the characters. Or the underbelly of glitzville.

Giving up on a jigsaw puzzle should be considered a criminal act. If all thee pieces are there.

It now turns out that critics agree that it is a dud. Almost all say it is a made-up story to satisfy a fantasy of the Producer/writer – Netflix $300 Million man Ryan Murphy and his writer associate Janet Mock. And it mocks the fifties for sure.

True Friendship: Walking into a person’s home and your Wi-Fi connects automatically.

The Answer:

Number 0one was the great Secretariat. 1948 winner Citation nosed out Seattle Slew ot take second. National favorite Seattle Slew, who was battling Secretariat before fading, held on to take third. he was followed by Affirmed and American Pharoah. The rest are also names of horses not forgotten – Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Justify, Assault, War Admiral, Omaha, Gallant Fox and Sir Barton. Man o’ War was voted as the top race horse of the 2oth century, but he didn’t start his incredible 20 win career until the race after the Derby, the Preakness, so he never won the Triple Crown. Which he probably would have.

City parks always there are quiet and uncrowded. You never realized what you had until you had to find it. Discover something new today.