Half way home.

Today's Tids Issue 3,378

Opening Stuff:

Mid year pop Quiz: Who is going to be in the World Series and will the stock markets hang in there for another year ending uptrend. We’re talking  ERA’s (Sorry Meryl, that stands for Earned Run Averages) and Earnings, Earnings, Earnings, which always spell doom or hope in Mid July. So, this is the week that is.

 And low and behold, this week we have it all, as in a meaningful baseball series with the Red Sox, relevant for the first time since opening day, going against the Ya, ya, ya  (wykwim)…in a series that could bunch the five AL East teams tightly together. The only other meaningful series this weekend is the Washington Nats against the Orioles. Baltimore is a contender in the AL and Washington leads in the most competitive NL division with the Mets and Atlanta still in it. In the NL Central, St. Louis is somewhat comfortable  with 5 ½ games over Pitt, as is LA Dodgers in the NL West with 5.5 over both Arizona and San Fran. The Cubs are playing a little better than average and have the Wild Card Game in hand right now.  The American League is a little tighter with the possible 5 team bunch in the East and a good race developing in the Central as KC (With Alex Gordon shelved for a while) will fight to hold on against Minn and the ever dangerous Detroit. Houston and LA Angels are on each yother’s heels. LA and Minn are in contention for the Wild Card. Frankly, it is a little disappointing to see so many teams seemingly out of it at the half way point. But remember, the Boston undertakers were shoving dirt on the Sox two week ago, and now they have a series that could vault them into the race. Never give up the faith on the home team.

What will the stock market look like after July? If it is good, thaen you can enjoy the baseball races. While the traders are loving the volatility due to Greece and China, the earnest market wants to see how companies are performing…and will perform (And, how the Fed will react). The Q1 scorecard was a relatively weak showing with excuses (Cold, for one) and many analysts downgraded predictions for Q2. The “March 31 Q2 Bottoms-up EPS Estimate”, which is an index showing the aggregation of the estimates for all the S&P 500 predicted a 2.3% decline. As a naked number it appears embarrassing, but it actually beat pretty nicely the 1, 5 and 10 year Quarter 2 averages. Lately though, the week by week estimates have crept up to -4.5% mainly because of changes that led to rising Industrials estimates, and the Consumer discretionary sector also worsened since March 31. Utilities which were a major minus factor the earlier estimate, have rebounded well and pay good dividends. The power that has been adding positively to the average is the energy sector. So the decline in estimates became more negative, but it is now time to watch and see, and hopefully get the reward of more stocks than not beating the estimates. There is always a wild card when predicting market results. The Tids Guess(?): Pepsico fizzed upward and Apple earnings are looking delicious. So, maybe we’ll squeak out another 6 no tension months. Warning: Tums stock may go down.

Are you asleep yet?

Nobody ever slept during an NFL game when the gambler, Kenny Stabler, was leading a last minute comeback for the Oakland Raiders. He was as exciting as it gets and one cool, down river Alabaman. Kenny Died yesterday with his well known Pick-up (Probably with a Rebel flag decal on the side) now sitting quietly in his driveway just up the road from Jimmy Buffet’s Margaritaville. Ken Stabler was as good as it gets. And. a rare character too.

The Question:

Jake LaMotta was one of the key characters in a great boxing movie (?),  about the life of who?, Played by whom?. Bonus: Jerry Herman was one of Broadway’s most prolific composers. Name three of his hit shows.

The Headlines:

--Dow Up 207 Points At Opening; Wall Street Expected Upturn After Greeks Offer reasonable solution for Consideration.

--US Army To Reach Smallest Troop Level Since 9/11 As Army Announces Troop Cuts.

--Typical Of Gov Employees, OPM Chief Katherine Archuletta Is Ignoring Pleas By Representatives Of The People To Step Down After Hiding Hacking Disaster.

--The Economist/You Gov Poll Has Trump (15%) Ahead Of Bush And Paul (11%) In Repub Race; The rest: Walker, Rubio, Huck (9%); Carson 7, Christie 6, Cruz 4, Florina 3; At 2 Or Below Are Perry, Santorum, Kasich, Graham and Pataki (0%).

--Oregon to Allow 15 year Old Kids To Get State Subsidized Sex Change Operations.

 --Iran Deadline To Fall By Wayside…Again.

I was thinking lately as I see world events -- like people from Northern Africa streaming to Italy and Europe; people in Mexico sneaking into the USA; Syrians hoping to get out of town before they are lined up and shot by despots -- that globalization has indeed begun and it won’t be long before free migration of peoples will become the new norm. As unsettling as it feels to those comfortable in their habitats, the snakes are in the dens of decent people and there is now here to go but out. This is more than an current, isolated phenomena, and it will not slow down over time as food shortages are sure to erupt in all places throughout the world. The libs love things like climate change because they st up bogie men, but the growth of populations is real and dangerous to an orderly society, and pretty much unstoppable. That is a problem upon I would be focusing, feeding the masses. Blaming people for something that may or may not be divides; feeding people unites.

I won’t be waiting in line for the first editions of “Watchman”, the sequel to “To Kill a Mockingbird”.

The P/E ratios for US stocks are averaging around 18, higher than the desireable16 but lower than 20 of the not too distant past. In China, nobody has a clue about where the P/E ratios may hover atop a bubble, but it probably isn’t as bigger factor in a Government infused marketplace.

Some things are so predictable in this state. I read where our Senators were rapturously extolling their recommendation for a US judgeship, Mary McElroy. Because of elation of those two suspect sponsors, my immediate thoughts were, how is she going  to contribute to the ongoing deterioration fo Rhode Island. Sure enough, I found she was the daughter of the heads of the teachers Union which is part of the cabal that has been running this forlorned state for decades. As they say around here, it’s all about family.

It really is ironic that this government of ours, which continually urges citizens to keep their Social Security cards in  a safe place, gets hacked and 21 Million SS #’s are snagged by who knows who. Even more ironic is that the same government issues Medicare cards to seniors which contains the SS#; cards that are used regularly by that doctor seeking segment of society.

The Parking Lot: Chapter 2 continues

  I looked down at the back of the kid’s head, watching his hands working far faster than they were when I first came over. He just wanted me to go away. “So, you know her but are afraid to tell me what you know.” I figured kids don’t like to be called afraid, so he might respond. I heard a quiet mumbling. “What was that?”

  A little louder now, so I leaned down and heard, “Get out of here mister. You don’t want to be here. That’s all I know.”

  “Hello, do you need some help.” I stood and turned towards the voice and saw behind a messy counter a red faced guy in plaid shirt and jeans staring at me through glassy eyes, and with not such a kindly look on his face. I now stood as tall as I could and walked confidently towards him with a friendly smile on my face. “I was looking for a good Malbach, and I just have no idea about how to sort through all of those labels of wines.  As I came to a stop at the counter, he appeared to soften. “My name is Jack, and I come from way over the bridge. Always Loved your town,” I added.

  “Lots of people wander around here,” He countered. “There are plenty of red wines over there,”  -- he pointed to the corner opposite where the boy was continuing to work.  – “and I say that they are all decent to me, so I would buy based on the money you have.”

  “Good Logic.” I smiled again and started to walk, but turned back to the guy who was now looking down at something on the counter. Hey, I forgot to ask, I’m looking for this girt I met in Newport, and I think she lives up around here. I pulled out the sketch, but red face held up his hand in a “stop!” gesture. Just get you wine and get out. This isn’t an information center.”

   Again, that Tiverton look. Now I was really interested. I think it was time for a new tack. I’ll think about over a couple of glasses of Red.

The odds are increasingly in favor of 0-Man agreeing to any deal he can with Iran just to get it on the books for his legacy. That’s the words on the street and in coffee shops among brighter realists.

Reading Between the Lines Movie reviews:

--Minions is the Animated summer feature of the week and probably the best of the weak bunch. Minons is a bit a=of a jumble and maybe just Ok, It is an evolution based concept that follows he single cell organisms form the dawn of time tough there arious world of despots til now. It is probably C+

--The Gallows is dreadful. And dead-full. A camera recording an accident at a school play 25 years ago, reveals that it may not have been so and may even be paranormal. In a restaging of the play the same thing happens again and another boy dies in a fake gallows during a school play. It is probably a “F”.

The Tip of the Iceberg, Department:

ESPN is feelng the crunch as the sports franchises ask for more  money for rights, and entertainment pinched audience subscribers bow out to save on their own finite funds. If this was Greece, they’d just say Screw it, we’ll borrow and not pay back. But this is the real world and the sports network dilemma may be just one of what many high flying enterprises will be facing in te not too distant future. The crunch.

The Answer:

The life of Rocky Graziano was portrayed by Paul Newman in a wonderful film hit Angel on My Shoulder. Bonus: Herman wrote Hello Dolly, Mame, and La Cage Aux Folles plus numerable other shows like Mack and Mable which produced song hits -- I Won’t Send Roses and Time Heels Everything; The Grand Tour with tunes like I Belong Here, Marianne and I’ll Be Here Tomorrow.

Have a particularly excellent weekend, E-v-e-r-y-b-o-d-y!