Everest or Jerimoth Hill..

Today's Tids Issue 2,804
Opening Stuff:

There are a couple of things in life I like at least as well as rich creamy yellow chicken gravy, Cheeto's and Cheddar rice cakes. And vanilla ice ream when I can sneak it. One of them is days of increasing stock prices, those pleasant moments when you think you have actually made money. But, these days I'm hedging my elation as I see each inch upward as movement towards a peak that can't be topped again. Can you get off the summit safely, that is the question which should be tempering enthusiasm. The helicopter may not get there in time.

The Tids reader feedback yesterday centered mainly on the April Fools news item, "Hilary Selects Pelosi for running mate". Most thought it was a distinct possibility, but not an attractive option.

The Question:
Double "Q" Day. 1. The Dow has had a remarkable run-up with Hewlett-Packard leading the way with a 64% increase in stock value. In fact 28 of the 30 Dow companies showed a stock price increase. Which two didn't? 2. Workers in 7 of the 10 largest occupations average earnings less than $30K. What is the highest paying of the 10 most popular occupations? What other two occupations average over the $30K Mark?

The Headlines:
--Obama Reneges On Plan Choices For Small Business Under AFCA.
--US Quietly Moves Military Assets Into South Korea; NK Starts Up Nuke Facilities.
--Stock Markets Looking For New Auto Data To Put It In Overdrive; Rebound From Gray Monday Expected.
--Government Increases Reimbursement Rate For Medicare Advantage By 3.3%; Helath Care Companies Elated.
--Federal Court Says Stockton Cal May Proceed With Bankruptcy; Largest City Failure To Date Could Be Model For All Cities, For Payout Priorities, Pensions Versus Other Creditors.
--EuroZone Unemployment Reaches 12% For First Time Ever; Struggling Economies Spain, Greece To Suffer.
--Helicopter On Alaska Rescue Mission Crashes Killing Three, Including Stranded Snowmobiler.
--Putin Signs Law Allowing Him To Pick Regional Governors.
--Slovenia Finally Allows Croatia Into EU.
--Mayhem, Confusion And Killings Continue In Stans, Middle East And Africa.

20 or so years ago we went sailing with a guy who had just lost a CEO job with a well known corporation. We asked what he was planning and he described this new child car seat he and a couple of guys had developed. I asked him how he was going to market such an expensive option for kid carrying, and he said he was going to Congress in a week or so to have a law written to mandate the use of car seats by  parents. See, it's not only with taxes does a Government menace it's citizens, but requiring budget busting expenditures. Think about the family that had more than 2 small kids. They have to buy a larger more expensive car to accommodation the rule requiring bulky seats.

In the irony story of the week is found in the National Hockey league where Jarome Iginla chose Pittsburgh over the Boston Bruins mainly so, as he said, he could play with Sid Crosby and win a championship. In his first Pittsburgh game, Crosby got blasted losing several teeth and breaking his jaw. Crosby may not return this year.

Too many adventurers are getting lost or stranded and requiring massive rescue efforts. Part of being a successful adventurer of any kind is knowing, being able to understand various conditions and how they may affect survival. And, that includes Wall Street too.

So you don't get the Global thing yet? The India Supreme Court's Novartis "Evergreening" decision yesterday will have a profound effect on the cost of cancer treatment in the US. Evergreening is the development for new Patent creation, minor formulation improvements that are not signifiantly different or better than the existing product. This means that Novartis's significant, important cancer medication, (Gleevec) could cost 10% of the $1,900/ month ot costs now if the India decision creeps into the US. It is not all a done deal in the US, however. There will be a titanic legal battle here, the generics versus the big brands. Meanwhile, low cost generics will become available from India and there will be a separate legal battle about whether or not Americans can buy them. Global emergence does not only push down average US wages, but also the cost of goods. Except of course, car seats for kids.

People running the market make the market look complex. But, it is quite simple for the average person, if the average person doesn't over think the system. First, the signals become obvious as they did with Dot Coms and buying homes without enough money, and today, reaching peaks that have always preceded cliffs. There are in reality only four strategies according to Paul Farrell. So, cash out and wait. The next strategy, Churning, outperforms "Buy and Hold". Buy into the decline with shorts, puts and active trading and make money as it falls. Sit tight and do nothing til storm ends. Of course it all depends where you are sitting while storm wages -- in storm cellar or upstairs bedroom. Create your own "Lazy Portfolio" of no load index funds diversified stocks and bonds.

There is one reason why this peak may have more upside than the same peaks in 2000-1 and 2007-8: US Corporation have trillions in profits stashed in European markets, which when brought home due to complications there would juice it up here.

The Answer:
1. The two Dow companies who lagged in minus territory were Alcoa and Caterpillar. 2. Of the 10 most popular occupations, only the 2.8 million Nurses made a living wage -- $68,000. The other two over $30 were secretaries and customer service representatives at around $33K. The occupation with the least average income is 3rd most common job, Food Prep ($18,720) followed by Cashiers and waiters ($21K). The most common job is Retail sales workers making a mere $25,330. The average for all jobs in America is $45,790. The median income of Americans has dropped $4K since 2,000.

And people wonder why the traditional backbone of America Middle Class, that huge block of buyers that made the economy roar above the rest of the world.

I have always enjoyed economics, but today is an era of de-isolation we have never before experienced. So basically, if you are an investor, at any given moment you may be standing on a corner, nude. Exercise is the key.

This Tids is much too ponderous for me.